Interrelationship and ENSO relationship of Fortaleza rainfall in different seasons

The rainfall series at Fortaleza, Ceara, NE Brazil for the four seasons DJF, MAM (main rainy season), JJA, SON were poorly intercorrelated (correlation 0.45 or less, common variance only ~20%). The relationship with El Niños was poor, with only about half of the El Niños associated with droughts. Among the El Niños, Unambiguous ENSOW had a better affinity for droughts, more so for DJF. But some droughts occurred in the abscence of El Niños and even during La Niña years, and some excess rains occurred during El Niño years. A large interference from other factors (mostly Atlantic SST etc.) unrelated to the ENSO phenomenon is obvious. The media seems to be giving undue importance to El Niño and La Niña only, which needs to be diluted.

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Kane,Rajaram P.
Format: Digital revista
Published: Sociedade Brasileira de Geofísica 2001
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