Are External Shocks Responsible for the Instability of Output in Low Income Countries?

External shocks, such as commodity price fluctuations, natural disasters, and the role of the international economy, are often blamed for the poor economic performance of low-income countries. The author quantifies the impact of these different external shocks using a panel vector autoregression (VAR) approach and compares their relative contributions to output volatility in low-income countries vis-à-vis internal factors. He finds that external shocks can only explain a small fraction of the output variance of a typical low-income country. Internal factors are the main source of fluctuations. From a quantitative perspective, the output effect of external shocks is typically small in absolute terms, but significant relative to the historic performance of these countries.

Bibliographic Details

Main Author:	Raddatz, Claudio
Format:	Policy Research Working Paper biblioteca
Language:	English
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2005-08
Subjects:	ABSOLUTE TERMS, ABSOLUTE VALUE, ADVERSE SHOCKS, AGGREGATE DEMAND, AUTOREGRESSION, AVERAGE GROWTH, AVERAGE INCOME, AVERAGE INCOME LEVEL, BENCHMARK, BUSINESS CYCLE, BUSINESS CYCLES, COUNTRY CHARACTERISTICS, COUNTRY REGRESSIONS, COUNTRY SPECIFIC, COVARIANCE MATRIX, CREDIT MARKET, CURRENT ACCOUNT, DAMAGES, DEBT, DEPENDENT VARIABLE, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE, DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, DYNAMIC RESPONSES, ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC IMPACT, ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE, ECONOMICS RESEARCH, EMERGING MARKETS, EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS, EXCHANGE RATE, EXCHANGE RATES, EXOGENOUS SHOCKS, EXOGENOUS VARIABLES, EXPLANATORY POWER, EXPORTS, EXTERNAL CONDITIONS, EXTERNAL FACTORS, EXTERNAL SHOCK, EXTERNAL SHOCKS, FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, FINANCIAL MARKETS, FIXED EXCHANGE RATES, FORECASTS, FOREIGN AID, FOREIGN CAPITAL, GDP PER CAPITA, GLOBAL ECONOMY, GLOBAL LEVEL, GROWTH RATES, GROWTH REGRESSIONS, HUMAN CAPITAL, IDENTIFICATION ASSUMPTIONS, INCOME, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, INCOME GROUP, INCOME GROUPS, INTEREST RATE, INTEREST RATES, INTERNAL FACTORS, INTERNATIONAL MARKETS, LATIN AMERICAN, LDCS, LOCAL CURRENCY, LONG RUN, LOW INCOME, LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES, MACROECONOMIC STABILITY, MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES, MACROECONOMICS, MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIES, MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES, MONETARY POLICY, NATIONAL ACCOUNTS, NATIONAL INCOME, NEGATIVE EFFECT, NEGATIVE IMPACT, NEGATIVE SHOCK, NEGATIVE SHOCKS, NOMINAL INTEREST RATE, 0 HYPOTHESIS, OUTPUT GROWTH, OUTPUT VOLATILITY, POINT ESTIMATE, POINT ESTIMATES, POLICY DEBATE, POLICY RESEARCH, POLITICAL INSTABILITY, POOR COUNTRIES, POOR COUNTRY, POSITIVE EFFECT, POSITIVE IMPACT, PRICE FLUCTUATIONS, PRICE INDEXES, PRIMARY COMMODITIES, REAL APPRECIATION, REAL GDP, REAL INTEREST, REAL INTEREST RATE, REAL OUTPUT, RELATIVE CONTRIBUTION, RELATIVE CONTRIBUTIONS, RELATIVE IMPORTANCE, RICH COUNTRIES, SIGNIFICANT EFFECT, SIGNIFICANT IMPACT, SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE, STANDARD DEVIATION, STRUCTURAL CHARACTERISTICS, SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA, TERMS OF TRADE, TERMS-OF-TRADE SHOCKS, TIME SERIES, TOTAL OUTPUT, WORLD INCOME DISTRIBUTION,
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2005/08/6213769/external-shocks-responsible-instability-output-low-income-countries http://hdl.handle.net/10986/8612
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