Projecting the Economic Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic
The highly uncertain evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic, influenced in part by government actions, social behavior, and vaccine-related developments, will play a critical role in shaping the global recovery’s strength and durability. This paper develops a modeling approach to embed pandemic scenarios and the rollout of a vaccine in a macroeconometric model and illustrates the impact of different pandemic- and vaccine-related assumptions on growth outcomes. The pandemic and the measures to contain it, including vaccine deployment, are assumed to be represented by consumption shocks in a macroeconometric model. In the baseline scenario, social distancing and a gradual vaccination process allow policy makers to make significant inroads in containing the pandemic. In a downside scenario, insufficient pandemic control efforts accompanied by delayed vaccination leads to persistently higher infection levels and a materially worse growth outcome. In contrast, in an upside scenario, effective management of the pandemic combined with rapid vaccine deployment would set the stage for stronger growth outcomes.
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Working Paper biblioteca |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2021-03
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| Subjects: | CORONAVIRUS, COVID-19, PANDEMIC IMPACT, ECONOMIC SHOCK, BUSINESS CYCLE, ECONOMETRIC MODEL, |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/718991616433868772/Projecting-the-Economic-Consequences-of-the-COVID-19-Pandemic https://hdl.handle.net/10986/35304 |
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