The authors explain Latin America's
growth slowdown in 1998-1999. To do so, they use two
complementary methodologies. The first aims at determining
how much of the slowdown can be explained by specific
external factors: the terms of trade, international interest
rates, spreads on external debt, capital flows, and
climatological factors (El Nino). Using quarterly GDP data
for the eight largest countries in the region, the authors
estimate a dynamic panel showing that 50-60 percent of the
slowdown was due to these external factors. The second
approach allows for effects on output by some endogeneous
variables, such as domestic real interest rates, and real
exchange rates. Using monthly industrial performance data,
the authors estimate country-specific generalized vector
auto-regressions (GVAR) for the largest countries. They find
that during the sample period (1992-98) output volatility is
mostly associated with shocks to domestic factors, but the
slowdown in the sub-period 1998-99 is explained more than 60
percent by shocks to the external factors.
Bibliographic Details
| Main Authors: |
Herrera, Santiago,
Perry, Guillermo,
Quintero, Neile |
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| Format: | Policy Research Working Paper
biblioteca
|
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| Language: | English
en_US |
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| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2000-05
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| Subjects: | ANNUAL GROWTH,
AUTOREGRESSION,
AVERAGE LEVEL,
BENCHMARK,
BONDS,
BUSINESS CYCLE,
BUSINESS CYCLES,
CAPITAL FLOWS,
CAPITAL MARKETS,
CD,
CONTEMPORANEOUS CORRELATION,
CONVERTIBILITY,
COVARIANCE MATRIX,
CURRENCY,
CURRENCY CRISES,
CURRENCY DEPRECIATION,
CURRENT ACCOUNT,
CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE,
DATA AVAILABILITY,
DATA SETS,
DEPENDENT VARIABLE,
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES,
DOMESTIC INTEREST RATES,
DOMESTIC REAL INTEREST RATE,
DOMESTIC REAL INTEREST RATES,
DYNAMIC PANEL,
ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE,
ECONOMIC POLICY,
EMERGING MARKETS,
EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE,
EMPIRICAL LITERATURE,
ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES,
ESTIMATED COEFFICIENTS,
ESTIMATION RESULTS,
EXCHANGE RATE VARIABILITY,
EXPLANATORY VARIABLES,
EXTERNAL % SHOCKS,
EXTERNAL CONDITIONS,
EXTERNAL DEBT,
EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT,
EXTERNAL FACTORS,
EXTERNAL SHOCKS,
FISCAL POLICY,
GDP,
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT,
GROWTH RATE,
GROWTH RATES,
INCREASE GROWTH,
INCREASES GROWTH,
INDIVIDUAL COUNTRIES,
INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES,
INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES,
INTEREST RATE SHOCKS,
INTERNAL FACTORS,
INTERNATIONAL INTEREST RATES,
LAGGED DEPENDENT,
LAGGED VALUE,
MACROECONOMIC OUTCOMES,
MULTIPLIERS,
NEGATIVE EFFECT,
OUTPUT FLUCTUATIONS,
OUTPUT GROWTH,
OUTPUT VARIABILITY,
OUTPUT VOLATILITY,
PANEL REGRESSIONS,
POLICY RESEARCH,
POLICY VARIABLES,
POOLING,
POVERTY REDUCTION,
REAL EXCHANGE,
REAL EXCHANGE RATE,
REAL EXCHANGE RATES,
REAL INTEREST,
REAL INTEREST RATE,
REAL INTEREST RATES,
REAL OUTPUT,
RELATIVE IMPORTANCE,
SCENARIOS,
STANDARD DEVIATION,
TERMS OF TRADE,
TERMS OF TRADE SHOCKS, |
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2000/05/437692/output-fluctuations-latin-america-explains-recent-slowdown
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/18841
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