Who Will Feed China in the 21st Century? Income Growth and Food Demand and Supply in China

This paper uses resource-based cereal equivalent measures to explore the evolution of China's demand and supply for food. Although demand for food calories is probably close to its peak level in China, the ongoing dietary shift to animal-based foods, induced by income growth, is likely to impose considerable pressure on agricultural resources. Estimating the relationship between income growth and food demand with data from a wide range of countries, China's demand growth appears to have been broadly similar to the global trend. On the supply side, output of food depends strongly on the productivity growth associated with income growth and on the country's agricultural land endowment, with China appearing to be an out-performer. The analyses of income-consumption-production dynamics suggest that China's current income level falls in the range where consumption growth outstrips production growth, but that the gap is likely to begin to decline as China's population growth and dietary transition slow down. Continued agricultural productivity growth through further investment in research and development, and expansion in farm size and increased mechanization, as well as sustainable management of agricultural resources, are vital for ensuring that it is primarily China that will feed China in the 21st century.

Bibliographic Details

Main Authors:	Fukase, Emiko, Martin, Will
Format:	Policy Research Working Paper biblioteca
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2014-06
Subjects:	AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT, AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, AGRICULTURAL ECONOMY, AGRICULTURAL INPUTS, AGRICULTURAL LAND, AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT, AGRICULTURAL POLICY, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS, AGRICULTURAL R & D, AGRICULTURAL R&D, AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH, AGRICULTURAL SECTOR, AGRICULTURE, ANIMAL, ANIMAL FEED, ANIMAL FEEDS, ANIMAL PRODUCT, ANIMAL PRODUCT CONSUMPTION, ANIMAL PRODUCTION, ANIMAL PRODUCTS, ANIMALS, ARABLE LAND, ARBITRAGE, BEEF, BEEF PRODUCTION, BEVERAGES, BREEDING, BREEDING ANIMALS, BREEDING STOCK, CA, CALORIE INTAKE, CALVES, CARBOHYDRATES, CARCASS WEIGHT, CATTLE, CEREAL PRODUCTS, CEREAL YIELD, CEREALS, CLIMATE CHANGE, CLIMATIC CHANGE, COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE, CONSUMERS, CONSUMPTION DATA, CONSUMPTION INCREASES, CONSUMPTION LEVELS, CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA, COOKING, CORN, COWS, CROP PRODUCTS, CROPLAND, DAIRY, DAIRY PRODUCTS, DEMAND FOR FOOD, DEMAND FOR MEAT, DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, DEVELOPMENT POLICY, DIET, DIETARY PATTERNS, DIMINISHING RETURNS, DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION, DOMESTIC DEMAND, ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS, ECONOMIC COOPERATION, ECONOMIC HISTORY, ECONOMIES OF SCALE, EDIBLE OILS, EGG, EGGS, ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION, EXPANSION OF IRRIGATION, EXPORTS, EXTERNALITIES, FARM, FARM INCOMES, FARM LABOR, FARM SECTOR, FARM SIZE, FARMERS, FARMS, FATTENING, FEED COMPETITION, FEED CONVERSION, FEED CROPS, FEED GRAINS, FEED PRODUCTION, FEED USE, FEEDING, FEEDS, FEEDSTOCK, FERMENTATION, FISH, FODDER, FOOD CONSUMPTION, FOOD CONSUMPTION PATTERNS, FOOD DEMAND, FOOD GRAINS, FOOD INSECURITY, FOOD OUTPUT, FOOD POLICY, FOOD POLICY RESEARCH, FOOD PRICE, FOOD PRICES, FOOD PRODUCTION, FOOD SECURITY, FOOD SELF-SUFFICIENCY, FOOD STAPLES, FOOD SUPPLIES, FOOD SUPPLY, FOODS, FORAGE, FORAGE CROPS, FRUIT, FRUITS, FUTURE RESEARCH, GDP, GDP PER CAPITA, GLOBAL FOOD PRODUCTION, GLOBAL LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION, GOAT MEAT, GRAINS, GRAZING, GRAZING LAND, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, GROWTH RATE, IFPRI, INCOME, INCOME GROWTH, INCOME INEQUALITY, INCOME LEVELS, INCOMES, INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE, INTERNATIONAL TRADE, IRRIGATION, LAMB, LAND AVAILABILITY, LAND MANAGEMENT, LAND PRODUCTIVITY, LAND RESOURCES, LIVELIHOODS, LIVESTOCK, LIVESTOCK DATA, LIVESTOCK FEED, LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION, LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION SYSTEMS, LIVESTOCK PRODUCTIVITY, LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS, LIVESTOCK SECTOR, LIVESTOCK STATISTICS, LOW INCOME,
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/06/19686638/feed-china-21st-century-income-growth-food-demand-supply-china http://hdl.handle.net/10986/18808
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