Is Extreme Poverty Going to End? An Analytical Framework to Evaluate Progress in Ending Extreme Poverty

The World Bank has recently adopted a target of reducing the proportion of population living below US$1.25 a day at 2005 international prices to 3 percent by 2030. This paper reviews different projection methods and estimates the global poverty rate of 2030 modifying Ravallion (2013)'s approach in that it introduces country-specific economic and population growth rates and takes into account the effect of changes in within-country inequality. This paper then identifies key obstacles to meeting the target and proposes a simple intermediate growth target under which the global poverty rate can be reduced to 3 percent by 2030. The findings of the analysis lend support to Basu (2013)'s argument that accelerating growth is not enough and sharing prosperity within and across countries is essential to end extreme poverty in one generation.

Bibliographic Details

Main Authors:	Yoshida, Nobuo, Uematsu, Hiroki, Sobrado, Carlos E.
Format:	Policy Research Working Paper biblioteca
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2014-01
Subjects:	AGGREGATION BIAS, ANNUAL GROWTH, ANNUAL GROWTH RATE, ANNUAL RATE, AVERAGE ANNUAL, AVERAGE GROWTH, AVERAGE GROWTH RATE, AVERAGE INEQUALITY, CONSUMPTION GROWTH, CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA, COUNTRY INEQUALITY, COUNTRY LEVEL, COUNTRY SPECIFIC, CROSS-COUNTRY REGRESSION, DATA AVAILABILITY, DECOMPOSITION ANALYSIS, DEVELOPED COUNTRIES, DEVELOPED WORLD, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPING COUNTRY, DEVELOPING WORLD, DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, DEVELOPMENT GOALS, DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS, DEVELOPMENT POLICY, DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH, DISTRIBUTIONAL CHANGES, ECONOMIC CRISES, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMICS, EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS, EMPIRICAL STUDIES, ESTIMATES OF POVERTY, EXTREME POVERTY, GLOBAL LEVEL, GLOBAL POVERTY, GROWTH ELASTICITY, GROWTH RATE, GROWTH RATES, GROWTH TARGET, HIGH GROWTH, HIGH GROWTH RATE, HIGH POVERTY, HOUSEHOLD SURVEY, HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS, INCOME, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, INCREASING GROWTH, INCREASING INEQUALITY, INEQUALITY, INEQUALITY CHANGES, INEQUALITY CONSTANT, INEQUALITY EFFECT, INEQUALITY WILL, MEAN EXPENDITURES, NATIONAL ACCOUNTS, NATURAL DISASTER, NATURAL DISASTERS, NUTRITION, POLICY DISCUSSIONS, POLICY MAKERS, POLICY RESEARCH, POOR, POOR COUNTRIES, POOR INDIVIDUALS, POOR PEOPLE, POOR POPULATIONS, POPULATION COMPOSITION, POPULATION DATA, POPULATION SHARE, POVERTY DATA, POVERTY DATABASE, POVERTY ESTIMATES, POVERTY HEADCOUNT, POVERTY HEADCOUNT RATE, POVERTY HEADCOUNT RATES, POVERTY INDICATORS, POVERTY LINE, POVERTY LINES, POVERTY MEASUREMENT, POVERTY MEASURES, POVERTY RATE, POVERTY RATES, POVERTY REDUCTION, POVERTY TARGET, PRIVATE CONSUMPTION, REDUCED INEQUALITY, REDUCING INEQUALITY, REDUCING POVERTY, REGIONAL AVERAGE, REGIONAL DECOMPOSITIONS, REGIONAL POPULATION, REGIONAL POPULATION GROWTH, REGIONAL POPULATION GROWTH RATES, REGIONAL POVERTY, REGRESSION ANALYSIS, RELATIVE DISTRIBUTION, RURAL, RURAL AREAS, RURAL POVERTY, RURAL POVERTY RATES, RURAL URBAN NATIONAL, SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS, SIGNIFICANT EFFECT, SIGNIFICANT IMPACT, SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION, URBAN AREAS,
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/01/18756975/extreme-poverty-going-end-analytical-framework-evaluate-progress-ending-extreme-poverty http://hdl.handle.net/10986/16811
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