Options for a sustainable food future and agricultural sector greenhouse gases mitigation. [P-2223-08]

By 2050, the agricultural sector should produce food to feed an increased and wealthier population, while reducing environmental impacts. In particular, conversion of natural ecosystems and greenhouse gas emissions are serious potential impacts of agricultural production. To take up this challenge, many options exist for the agricultural sector. Some are on the supply side, such as increasing the efficiency of livestock production, increasing the efficiency in crop production inputs, or a sustainable increase of aquaculture. Others are on the demand side, such as changes in diets, reduction of losses and wastes or, more controversially, reduction in population increase. The overall consequences of those options on land-use and greenhouse gas emissions, especially when taken together, are not easy to assess in a transparent and consistent way. To tackle this challenge, a simple balance model with detailed biophysical modules is developped to assess the consequences in term of greeenhouse gases emissions reductions of various options for the agricultural sector, under the constraint of feeding the world. The reference year balances are based on FAOSTAT food commodity balances. Demand is set exogenously based on population and diets, trade is based on import dependence and export market shares, and loss coefficients are used. Transformation through livestock sectors and oil crops crushing allows to determine production, and, with exogenously set yields, land-use. In the reference case, yields and demands evolutions are based on FAO projections. Detailed modules of livestock, aquaculture, land-use change emissions, nitrogen cycle and rice methane emissions allow to determine transformation and emission coefficients, as well as the consequences of diverse options. The model integrates those informations at the global scale on several regions, allowing to assess in a transparent way the consequences of the options used together. The methodology and the model results will be presented for change in livestock efficiency, rice methane emissions mitigation options, changes in diets and increases in nitrogen use efficiency. (Texte intégral)

Bibliographic Details

Main Authors:	Dumas, Patrice, Searchinger, Tim, Manceron, Stéphane, Le Mouël, Chantal
Format:	conference_item biblioteca
Language:	eng
Published:	CFCC15
Subjects:	E14 - Économie et politique du développement, P01 - Conservation de la nature et ressources foncières, S01 - Nutrition humaine - Considérations générales, P40 - Météorologie et climatologie,
Online Access:	http://agritrop.cirad.fr/577047/ http://agritrop.cirad.fr/577047/1/ID577047.pdf
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