Multi-scale integrated assessment of regional conversion to Organic Farming (OF)
Is the regional conversion to Organic Farming (OF) possible? What could be the consequences at different scales in terms of social and economic development as well as nature conservation? Taking the heterogeneity of farms and farming systems in the region into accom1t, are there farmers more prone to conversion and others that face greater obstacles? The objective of this paper is to shed light on some of these question by presenting the results of a scenario assessment carried out with regard to the extension of OF in the Camargue region in southern France. The application of different modelling approaches with great potential for the multi-scale and multi-criteria evaluation of the extension of OF is presented: bio-economic models, agent-based models and land-use/cover change models. According to our results, the most probable conversion in the near future in the Camargue would take place in fields with low salt pressure that belong to livestock breeders and diversified cereal producers. However, the regional conversion to OF is plausible since the region could maintain its economic productivity while decreasing potential hamlful impacts on the environment. Finally, the possible conversion trajectories suggest that certain farmers (specialised in rice production) might need greater assistance to ensure such conversion to OF since their economic performance would be hampered during that period. The application of these three approaches to explore the same scenario in one region revealed their complementarity for tackling the complex issue of regional conversion to OF from different angles.