Trend analysis to determine hazards related to climate change in the Andean agricultural areas of Cundinamarca and Boyacá
Recognizing the threat from climate change that is facing and will face agro ecosystems is the first step in determining adaptation to climate change. One way is through Global Climate Models (GCMs), but their spatial resolution is not best suited for making decisions locally, further reducing scale, seen as a way to resolve the resolution problem, has not yielded the expected results. This study puts forth an exercise in which we study the climatic time series of precipitation and temperature to determine if there are effects of climate change on one of the most important national agricultural areas, using the Mann-Kendall analysis to determine the existence of statistically significant trends, i.e. signs of change in the variables analyzed. It was found that the variable that presents the most significant trends is the average maximum temperature, while precipitation and average minimum temperature do not.
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Universidad Nacional de Colombia - Sede Bogotá - Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias
2011
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oai:www.revistas.unal.edu.co:article-160812015-09-14T20:51:31Z Trend analysis to determine hazards related to climate change in the Andean agricultural areas of Cundinamarca and Boyacá Boshell V., Francisco J. Peña Q., Andrés J . Arce B., Blanca A. Paternina Q., María J. Ayarza M., Miguel A. Rojas B., Edwin O. Recognizing the threat from climate change that is facing and will face agro ecosystems is the first step in determining adaptation to climate change. One way is through Global Climate Models (GCMs), but their spatial resolution is not best suited for making decisions locally, further reducing scale, seen as a way to resolve the resolution problem, has not yielded the expected results. This study puts forth an exercise in which we study the climatic time series of precipitation and temperature to determine if there are effects of climate change on one of the most important national agricultural areas, using the Mann-Kendall analysis to determine the existence of statistically significant trends, i.e. signs of change in the variables analyzed. It was found that the variable that presents the most significant trends is the average maximum temperature, while precipitation and average minimum temperature do not. Universidad Nacional de Colombia - Sede Bogotá - Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias 2011-05-01 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion application/pdf text/html https://revistas.unal.edu.co/index.php/agrocol/article/view/16081 Agronomía Colombiana; Vol. 29 No. 2 (2011); 275-285 Agronomía Colombiana; Vol. 29 Núm. 2 (2011); 275-285 Agronomía Colombiana; v. 29 n. 2 (2011); 275-285 2357-3732 0120-9965 spa https://revistas.unal.edu.co/index.php/agrocol/article/view/16081/30369 https://revistas.unal.edu.co/index.php/agrocol/article/view/16081/37419 Copyright (c) 2011 Agronomía Colombiana https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0 |
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Boshell V., Francisco J. Peña Q., Andrés J . Arce B., Blanca A. Paternina Q., María J. Ayarza M., Miguel A. Rojas B., Edwin O. |
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Boshell V., Francisco J. Peña Q., Andrés J . Arce B., Blanca A. Paternina Q., María J. Ayarza M., Miguel A. Rojas B., Edwin O. Trend analysis to determine hazards related to climate change in the Andean agricultural areas of Cundinamarca and Boyacá |
author_facet |
Boshell V., Francisco J. Peña Q., Andrés J . Arce B., Blanca A. Paternina Q., María J. Ayarza M., Miguel A. Rojas B., Edwin O. |
author_sort |
Boshell V., Francisco J. |
title |
Trend analysis to determine hazards related to climate change in the Andean agricultural areas of Cundinamarca and Boyacá |
title_short |
Trend analysis to determine hazards related to climate change in the Andean agricultural areas of Cundinamarca and Boyacá |
title_full |
Trend analysis to determine hazards related to climate change in the Andean agricultural areas of Cundinamarca and Boyacá |
title_fullStr |
Trend analysis to determine hazards related to climate change in the Andean agricultural areas of Cundinamarca and Boyacá |
title_full_unstemmed |
Trend analysis to determine hazards related to climate change in the Andean agricultural areas of Cundinamarca and Boyacá |
title_sort |
trend analysis to determine hazards related to climate change in the andean agricultural areas of cundinamarca and boyacá |
description |
Recognizing the threat from climate change that is facing and will face agro ecosystems is the first step in determining adaptation to climate change. One way is through Global Climate Models (GCMs), but their spatial resolution is not best suited for making decisions locally, further reducing scale, seen as a way to resolve the resolution problem, has not yielded the expected results. This study puts forth an exercise in which we study the climatic time series of precipitation and temperature to determine if there are effects of climate change on one of the most important national agricultural areas, using the Mann-Kendall analysis to determine the existence of statistically significant trends, i.e. signs of change in the variables analyzed. It was found that the variable that presents the most significant trends is the average maximum temperature, while precipitation and average minimum temperature do not. |
publisher |
Universidad Nacional de Colombia - Sede Bogotá - Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias |
publishDate |
2011 |
url |
https://revistas.unal.edu.co/index.php/agrocol/article/view/16081 |
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