Limited effectivenes of El Niños in causing doughts in ne Brazil and the prominet role of Atlantic parameters
Though El Niños are popularly believed to be associated with droughts in NE Brazil, not all El Niños are effective. During 1871-1998, there were 52 El Niños, out of which 31 were associated with droughts and 21 were not associated. The failures are mainly due to the intervention of conditions in the Atlantic. The mass media needs to take this into account and minimize their exaggerated expectations of droughts during El Niño years.
Sociedade Brasileira de Geofísica
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