Liver cancer mortality in Mexico: trend analysis from 1998 to 2018

Abstract: Objective: To examine overall, sex, and state-specific liver cancer mortality trends in Mexico. Materials and methods: Joinpoint regression was used to examine the trends in age-standardized mortality rates of liver cancer between 1998-2018. Estimated annual percent change with 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) were computed. Age-period-cohort models were used to assess the effects of age, calendar year, and birth cohort. Results: The state-specific mortality rates ranged from 3.34 (Aguascalientes) to 7.96 (Chiapas) per 100 000 person-years. Sex-specific rates were roughly equal, nationwide. Overall, we observed a statistically significant decrease in liver cancer mortality rates between 1998-2018 (annual percent change, -0.8%; 95%CI -1.0, -0.6). The overall age-period-cohort models suggest that birth cohort may be the most important factor driving the trends. Conclusions: While there was overall decline in liver cancer mortality, differences in rates by region were observed. The regional differences may inform future studies of liver cancer etiology across the country.