Policy Options for Meeting the Millennium Development Goals in Brazil : Can Micro-Simulations Help?

The authors investigate whether micro-simulation techniques can shed light on the types of policies that should be adopted by countries wishing to meet their Millennium Development Goals. They compare two families of micro-simulations. The first family of micro-simulations decomposes required poverty changes into a change in the mean and a reduction in inequality. Although it highlights the importance of inequality reduction, it appears to be too general to be of much use for policymaking. The second family of micro-simulations is based on a richer model of behavior in the labor markets. It points to the importance of combining different policy options, such as educational expansion and targeted conditional redistribution schemes, to ensure that the poorest people in society are successfully reached. But the absence of market equilibria in these statistical models, as well as the strong stability assumptions which are implicit in their use, argue for extreme caution in their interpretation.

Bibliographic Details

Main Authors:	Ferreira, Francisco H.G., Leite, Phillippe George
Format:	Policy Research Working Paper biblioteca
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2003-02
Subjects:	DEVELOPMENT POLICY, SIMULATION, SIMULATION METHODS, LABOR MARKET CHARACTERISTICS, LABOR MARKET ECONOMETRIC MODELS, REDISTRIBUTION, GOVERNMENT POLICY, ACCESS TO EDUCATION, ECONOMIC GROWTH, LORENZ CURVE, MICROECONOMIC ECONOMETRIC MODELS, HOUSEHOLD INCOME, OCCUPATIONAL STRUCTURE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR, ANNUAL GROWTH, ANNUAL GROWTH RATE, ANNUAL RATE, AVERAGE ANNUAL, CAPITA GROWTH, CHILD LABOR, COMPLETE LISTING, CPI, CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION, CUMULATIVE GROWTH, DATA SET, DEVELOPMENT GOALS, DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS, DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH, DIRECT IMPACT, ECONOMETRICS, EDUCATION LEVEL, EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT, EMPIRICAL MODEL, EQUILIBRIUM, ESTIMATED COEFFICIENTS, EXCHANGE RATE, EXCHANGE RATES, EXPENDITURES, EXPLANATORY VARIABLES, EXTREME POVERTY, GINI COEFFICIENT, GROWTH ELASTICITY, GROWTH RATE, GROWTH RATES, HOUSEHOLD BEHAVIOR, HOUSEHOLD INCOMES, HOUSEHOLD MEMBERS, HOUSEHOLD SIZE, HOUSEHOLD SURVEY, HUMAN WELFARE, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, INCOME LEVEL, INCOME LEVELS, INCREASING INEQUALITY, INEQUALITY MEASURES, INEQUALITY TRENDS, INEQUALITY WILL, INEQUALITY-INCREASING EFFECT, INFLATION, INFLATION RATES, INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS, INTERNATIONAL POVERTY LINE, LABOR FORCE, LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION, LABOR MARKETS, LONGITUDINAL DATA, MARGINAL RETURNS, MEAN INCOME, MEAN INCOMES, MEAN LOG DEVIATION, MICROECONOMICS, MONITORING PROGRAMS, MULTILATERAL INSTITUTIONS, NORMAL DISTRIBUTION, OBSERVED CHANGES, OPPORTUNITY COSTS, PER CAPITA EXPENDITURE, PER CAPITA GROWTH, PER CAPITA GROWTH RATE, PER CAPITA INCOME, PER CAPITA INCOME LEVELS, PER CAPITA INCOMES, POLICY INTERVENTION, POLICY INTERVENTIONS, POLICY MAKERS, POLICY OPTIONS, POLICY OUTCOMES, POLICY RESEARCH, POLITICAL ARENA, POOR POLICIES, POVERTY CHANGES, POVERTY GAP, POVERTY HEADCOUNT, POVERTY INCIDENCE, POVERTY LINE, POVERTY MEASURES, POVERTY RATE, POVERTY REDUCTION, PRIMARY EDUCATION, PRIVATE SECTOR, PRIVATE SECTOR EMPLOYMENT, PRO-POOR, PUBLIC SERVICE, PURCHASING POWER, PURCHASING POWER PARITY, REDISTRIBUTION POLICIES, REDISTRIBUTION POLICY, REDUCING INEQUALITY, RELATIVE SUPPLY, RURAL AREAS, SAMPLE SIZE, SECTOR EMPLOYMENT, SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS, TEAM MEMBERS, TERTIARY EDUCATION, UNEMPLOYMENT, WAGES,
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2003/02/2166844/policy-options-meeting-millennium-development-goals-brazil-can-micro-simulations-help http://hdl.handle.net/10986/19147
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