Spatial frameworks for robust estimation of yield gaps
Food security interventions and policies need reliable estimates of crop production and the scope to enhance production on existing cropland. Here we assess the performance of two widely used ‘top-down’ gridded frameworks (Global Agro-ecological Zones and Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project) versus an alternative ‘bottom-up’ approach (Global Yield Gap Atlas). The Global Yield Gap Atlas estimates extra production potential locally for a number of sites representing major breadbaskets and then upscales the results to larger spatial scales. We find that estimates from top-down frameworks are alarmingly unlikely, with estimated potential production being lower than current farm production at some locations. The consequences of using these coarse estimates to predict food security are illustrated by an example for sub-Saharan Africa, where using different approaches would lead to different prognoses about future cereal self-sufficiency. Our study shows that foresight about food security and associated agriculture research priority setting based on yield potential and yield gaps derived from top-down approaches are subject to a high degree of uncertainty and would benefit from incorporating estimates from bottom-up approaches.
Main Authors: | Edreira, Juan I. Rattalino, Andrade, José F., Cassman, Kenneth G., Ittersum, Martin K. van, van Loon, Marloes P., Grassini, Patricio |
---|---|
Format: | Journal Article biblioteca |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Springer
2021-09-30
|
Subjects: | climate change, food security, agriculture, yield gap, climate change adaptation, climate change mitigation, |
Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/116044 https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-021-00365-y |
Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
Similar Items
-
Climate-smart agriculture and food security: Cross-country evidence from West Africa
by: Tabe-Ojong, Martin Paul Jr., et al.
Published: (2023-07) -
How good is good enough? Data requirements for reliable crop yield simulations and yield-gap analysis
by: Grassini, Patricio, et al.
Published: (2015-06) -
Projected climate adaptation benefits of One CGIAR
by: Ramírez Villegas, Julián, et al.
Published: (2021-11-02) -
The Adaptation Gap Report 2018
by: United Nations Environment Programme
Published: (2018) -
D1940: Results from the Fertilizer demonstration experiment with maize at IOP Farm in Iringa, Tanzania in 2018
by: Mtakwa, Peter, et al.
Published: (2019-03-07)