Warm nights drive Coffea arabica ripening in Tanzania
Studies have demonstrated that plant phenophases (e.g. budburst, flowering, ripening) are occurring increasingly earlier in the season across diverse ecologies globally. Despite much interest that climate change impacts have on coffee (Coffea arabica), relatively little is known about the driving factors determining its phenophases. Using high-resolution microclimatic data, this study provides initial insights on how climate change is impacting C. arabica phenophases in Tanzania. In particular, we use generalized additive models to show how warming nocturnal temperatures (Tnight), as opposed to day-time or maximum temperatures, have a superseding effect on the ripening of coffee and subsequent timing of harvest. A warm night index (WNI), generated from mean nocturnal temperature, permits accurate prediction of the start of the harvest season, which is superior to existing methods using growing degree days (GDD). The non-linear function indicates that a WNI of 15 °C is associated with the latest ripening coffee cherries (adjusted R2 = 0.95). As the WNI increases past the inflection point of ~ 16 °C, ripening occurs earlier and progresses more or less linearly at a rate of ~ 17 ± 1.95 days for every 1 °C increase in WNI. Using the WNI will thus not only allow farmers to more accurately predict their harvest start date, but also assist with identifying the most suitable adaptation strategies which may reduce harvest-related costs and buffer potential losses in quality and production.
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Format: | Journal Article biblioteca |
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Springer
2021-02
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Subjects: | phenology, fenologia, temperature, temperatura, climate change, cambio climatico, coffea arabica, ecology, |
Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/109546 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-020-02016-6 |
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dig-cgspace-10568-1095462023-12-08T19:36:04Z Warm nights drive Coffea arabica ripening in Tanzania Craparo, Alessandro Asten, Piet J.A. van Läderach, Peter Jassogne, Laurence T.P. Grab, S. W. phenology fenologia temperature temperatura climate change cambio climatico coffea arabica ecology Studies have demonstrated that plant phenophases (e.g. budburst, flowering, ripening) are occurring increasingly earlier in the season across diverse ecologies globally. Despite much interest that climate change impacts have on coffee (Coffea arabica), relatively little is known about the driving factors determining its phenophases. Using high-resolution microclimatic data, this study provides initial insights on how climate change is impacting C. arabica phenophases in Tanzania. In particular, we use generalized additive models to show how warming nocturnal temperatures (Tnight), as opposed to day-time or maximum temperatures, have a superseding effect on the ripening of coffee and subsequent timing of harvest. A warm night index (WNI), generated from mean nocturnal temperature, permits accurate prediction of the start of the harvest season, which is superior to existing methods using growing degree days (GDD). The non-linear function indicates that a WNI of 15 °C is associated with the latest ripening coffee cherries (adjusted R2 = 0.95). As the WNI increases past the inflection point of ~ 16 °C, ripening occurs earlier and progresses more or less linearly at a rate of ~ 17 ± 1.95 days for every 1 °C increase in WNI. Using the WNI will thus not only allow farmers to more accurately predict their harvest start date, but also assist with identifying the most suitable adaptation strategies which may reduce harvest-related costs and buffer potential losses in quality and production. 2021-02 2020-09-18T17:05:03Z 2020-09-18T17:05:03Z Journal Article Craparo, A.C.W.; Van Asten, P.J.A.; Läderach, P.; Jassogne, L. T. P.; Grab, S. W. Warm nights drive Coffea arabica ripening in Tanzania. International Journal of Biometeorology, Online first paper (14 September 2020). 12 p. ISSN: 0020-7128 0020-7128 https://hdl.handle.net/10568/109546 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-020-02016-6 en Copyrighted; all rights reserved Limited Access p. 181-192 Springer International Journal of Biometeorology |
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phenology fenologia temperature temperatura climate change cambio climatico coffea arabica ecology phenology fenologia temperature temperatura climate change cambio climatico coffea arabica ecology |
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phenology fenologia temperature temperatura climate change cambio climatico coffea arabica ecology phenology fenologia temperature temperatura climate change cambio climatico coffea arabica ecology Craparo, Alessandro Asten, Piet J.A. van Läderach, Peter Jassogne, Laurence T.P. Grab, S. W. Warm nights drive Coffea arabica ripening in Tanzania |
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Studies have demonstrated that plant phenophases (e.g. budburst, flowering, ripening) are occurring increasingly earlier in the season across diverse ecologies globally. Despite much interest that climate change impacts have on coffee (Coffea arabica), relatively little is known about the driving factors determining its phenophases. Using high-resolution microclimatic data, this study provides initial insights on how climate change is impacting C. arabica phenophases in Tanzania. In particular, we use generalized additive models to show how warming nocturnal temperatures (Tnight), as opposed to day-time or maximum temperatures, have a superseding effect on the ripening of coffee and subsequent timing of harvest. A warm night index (WNI), generated from mean nocturnal temperature, permits accurate prediction of the start of the harvest season, which is superior to existing methods using growing degree days (GDD). The non-linear function indicates that a WNI of 15 °C is associated with the latest ripening coffee cherries (adjusted R2 = 0.95). As the WNI increases past the inflection point of ~ 16 °C, ripening occurs earlier and progresses more or less linearly at a rate of ~ 17 ± 1.95 days for every 1 °C increase in WNI. Using the WNI will thus not only allow farmers to more accurately predict their harvest start date, but also assist with identifying the most suitable adaptation strategies which may reduce harvest-related costs and buffer potential losses in quality and production. |
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Journal Article |
topic_facet |
phenology fenologia temperature temperatura climate change cambio climatico coffea arabica ecology |
author |
Craparo, Alessandro Asten, Piet J.A. van Läderach, Peter Jassogne, Laurence T.P. Grab, S. W. |
author_facet |
Craparo, Alessandro Asten, Piet J.A. van Läderach, Peter Jassogne, Laurence T.P. Grab, S. W. |
author_sort |
Craparo, Alessandro |
title |
Warm nights drive Coffea arabica ripening in Tanzania |
title_short |
Warm nights drive Coffea arabica ripening in Tanzania |
title_full |
Warm nights drive Coffea arabica ripening in Tanzania |
title_fullStr |
Warm nights drive Coffea arabica ripening in Tanzania |
title_full_unstemmed |
Warm nights drive Coffea arabica ripening in Tanzania |
title_sort |
warm nights drive coffea arabica ripening in tanzania |
publisher |
Springer |
publishDate |
2021-02 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/10568/109546 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-020-02016-6 |
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