Condicoes de equilibrio no mercado internacional do cacau
Currently the Brazilian Government is looking for policy alternatives to increase cocoa production for exportation. Some of the principal characteristics of the external cocoa market are the instability of price generated by several factors influencing the supply and demand of the product. The better knowledge of the mechanism of the prices of cocoa in the external market can contribute to estimate the results of the possible economic impact of the production expansion policy conducted by Brazil. The specific objectives of this study are to examine the aggregate structures of supply and demand of cocoa in the international market and to determine the expansion path the product price followed in the direction of equilibrium. The basic statistical material for analysis is from an annual series of total world supply of cocoa and of average cocoa prices in the New York market. The data refer to the period of 1925 to 1971. The simple Cobweb model was used to examine the tendency or general form of the behaviour of prices and utilization. The method orthodox least squares was used to estimate the parameters of the supply and demand equations. The analysis of the results indicates that the world market of cocoa tends to represent a natural exposive cobweb model, which is a response to the high price elasticity of supply (Eps - 0.219) relative to the price elasticity of demands (Epa - -0.001). The conclusion, although carrying some limitations in the analysis made, is that the cocoa market structure of supply and demand represents a role of extreme relevance in the determination of the level and stabilization of prices in the international market. Global policies of supply expansion should seriously consider the possible impact on the price and foreign exchange obtained from that increase. Meanwhile, a unilateral program directed only by Brazil but supported by world cocoa agreement of yearly storage would favor a substantial increase in Brazils' foreign exchange
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1974
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| Subjects: | CACAO, COMERCIO EXTERIOR, PRECIOS, BALANZA COMERCIAL, BRASIL, |
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CACAO COMERCIO EXTERIOR PRECIOS BALANZA COMERCIAL BRASIL CACAO COMERCIO EXTERIOR PRECIOS BALANZA COMERCIAL BRASIL |
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CACAO COMERCIO EXTERIOR PRECIOS BALANZA COMERCIAL BRASIL CACAO COMERCIO EXTERIOR PRECIOS BALANZA COMERCIAL BRASIL 50792 Brandt, S.A. 39500 Aad Neto, A. 110405 Rezende, A.M. 120982 Souza, A.F. de 109518 Rebello, A. da P.P. Condicoes de equilibrio no mercado internacional do cacau |
| description |
Currently the Brazilian Government is looking for policy alternatives to increase cocoa production for exportation. Some of the principal characteristics of the external cocoa market are the instability of price generated by several factors influencing the supply and demand of the product. The better knowledge of the mechanism of the prices of cocoa in the external market can contribute to estimate the results of the possible economic impact of the production expansion policy conducted by Brazil. The specific objectives of this study are to examine the aggregate structures of supply and demand of cocoa in the international market and to determine the expansion path the product price followed in the direction of equilibrium. The basic statistical material for analysis is from an annual series of total world supply of cocoa and of average cocoa prices in the New York market. The data refer to the period of 1925 to 1971. The simple Cobweb model was used to examine the tendency or general form of the behaviour of prices and utilization. The method orthodox least squares was used to estimate the parameters of the supply and demand equations. The analysis of the results indicates that the world market of cocoa tends to represent a natural exposive cobweb model, which is a response to the high price elasticity of supply (Eps - 0.219) relative to the price elasticity of demands (Epa - -0.001). The conclusion, although carrying some limitations in the analysis made, is that the cocoa market structure of supply and demand represents a role of extreme relevance in the determination of the level and stabilization of prices in the international market. Global policies of supply expansion should seriously consider the possible impact on the price and foreign exchange obtained from that increase. Meanwhile, a unilateral program directed only by Brazil but supported by world cocoa agreement of yearly storage would favor a substantial increase in Brazils' foreign exchange |
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| topic_facet |
CACAO COMERCIO EXTERIOR PRECIOS BALANZA COMERCIAL BRASIL |
| author |
50792 Brandt, S.A. 39500 Aad Neto, A. 110405 Rezende, A.M. 120982 Souza, A.F. de 109518 Rebello, A. da P.P. |
| author_facet |
50792 Brandt, S.A. 39500 Aad Neto, A. 110405 Rezende, A.M. 120982 Souza, A.F. de 109518 Rebello, A. da P.P. |
| author_sort |
50792 Brandt, S.A. |
| title |
Condicoes de equilibrio no mercado internacional do cacau |
| title_short |
Condicoes de equilibrio no mercado internacional do cacau |
| title_full |
Condicoes de equilibrio no mercado internacional do cacau |
| title_fullStr |
Condicoes de equilibrio no mercado internacional do cacau |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Condicoes de equilibrio no mercado internacional do cacau |
| title_sort |
condicoes de equilibrio no mercado internacional do cacau |
| publishDate |
1974 |
| work_keys_str_mv |
AT 50792brandtsa condicoesdeequilibrionomercadointernacionaldocacau AT 39500aadnetoa condicoesdeequilibrionomercadointernacionaldocacau AT 110405rezendeam condicoesdeequilibrionomercadointernacionaldocacau AT 120982souzaafde condicoesdeequilibrionomercadointernacionaldocacau AT 109518rebelloadapp condicoesdeequilibrionomercadointernacionaldocacau |
| _version_ |
1756057119496339457 |
| spelling |
KOHA-OAI-BVE:684932022-05-13T12:28:35ZCondicoes de equilibrio no mercado internacional do cacau 50792 Brandt, S.A. 39500 Aad Neto, A. 110405 Rezende, A.M. 120982 Souza, A.F. de 109518 Rebello, A. da P.P. 1974Currently the Brazilian Government is looking for policy alternatives to increase cocoa production for exportation. Some of the principal characteristics of the external cocoa market are the instability of price generated by several factors influencing the supply and demand of the product. The better knowledge of the mechanism of the prices of cocoa in the external market can contribute to estimate the results of the possible economic impact of the production expansion policy conducted by Brazil. The specific objectives of this study are to examine the aggregate structures of supply and demand of cocoa in the international market and to determine the expansion path the product price followed in the direction of equilibrium. The basic statistical material for analysis is from an annual series of total world supply of cocoa and of average cocoa prices in the New York market. The data refer to the period of 1925 to 1971. The simple Cobweb model was used to examine the tendency or general form of the behaviour of prices and utilization. The method orthodox least squares was used to estimate the parameters of the supply and demand equations. The analysis of the results indicates that the world market of cocoa tends to represent a natural exposive cobweb model, which is a response to the high price elasticity of supply (Eps - 0.219) relative to the price elasticity of demands (Epa - -0.001). The conclusion, although carrying some limitations in the analysis made, is that the cocoa market structure of supply and demand represents a role of extreme relevance in the determination of the level and stabilization of prices in the international market. Global policies of supply expansion should seriously consider the possible impact on the price and foreign exchange obtained from that increase. Meanwhile, a unilateral program directed only by Brazil but supported by world cocoa agreement of yearly storage would favor a substantial increase in Brazils' foreign exchangeCurrently the Brazilian Government is looking for policy alternatives to increase cocoa production for exportation. Some of the principal characteristics of the external cocoa market are the instability of price generated by several factors influencing the supply and demand of the product. The better knowledge of the mechanism of the prices of cocoa in the external market can contribute to estimate the results of the possible economic impact of the production expansion policy conducted by Brazil. The specific objectives of this study are to examine the aggregate structures of supply and demand of cocoa in the international market and to determine the expansion path the product price followed in the direction of equilibrium. The basic statistical material for analysis is from an annual series of total world supply of cocoa and of average cocoa prices in the New York market. The data refer to the period of 1925 to 1971. The simple Cobweb model was used to examine the tendency or general form of the behaviour of prices and utilization. The method orthodox least squares was used to estimate the parameters of the supply and demand equations. The analysis of the results indicates that the world market of cocoa tends to represent a natural exposive cobweb model, which is a response to the high price elasticity of supply (Eps - 0.219) relative to the price elasticity of demands (Epa - -0.001). The conclusion, although carrying some limitations in the analysis made, is that the cocoa market structure of supply and demand represents a role of extreme relevance in the determination of the level and stabilization of prices in the international market. Global policies of supply expansion should seriously consider the possible impact on the price and foreign exchange obtained from that increase. Meanwhile, a unilateral program directed only by Brazil but supported by world cocoa agreement of yearly storage would favor a substantial increase in Brazils' foreign exchangeCACAOCOMERCIO EXTERIORPRECIOSBALANZA COMERCIALBRASILRevista Ceres (Brasil) |